February 16, 2009 Archives

TOPIC: ISSUE184 - “It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data.”

WORDS:375          TIME: 0:50:00          DATE: 2009-2-16

 

According to the title statement, it is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data. While I agree that data is very important to stabilize one’s theory, I insist that sometimes we can put forward a theory before we have data. In other words, scientists should not wait to theorize until they obtain too much data, as this phenomenon can equally lead to grave consequences.

In the academic physics field, scientists often conduct thought experiments in the form of imagination, sometimes using mathematical methods to derive new formulas without using any data. For example, when Albert Einstein first proposed his principle of relativity, it was based on pure mathematical formulas in his paper, with few supporting data. This was because, at the start of the 20th century, experimental techniques and conditions were not highly developed. However, to validate his theory with data, the experiment must be set up precisely. Even now, some deductions from his theory of relativity have not been proven with data yet.

Therefore, in many cases, scientists use thought experiments when particular physical experiments are impossible to conduct. In fact, some experiments were never carried out, but this unique use of scientific thought experiments led to successful theories that were proven by other empirical means.

In addition, scientists also use proxy experiments, which they conduct prior to a real physical experiment. The results of the proxy experiment will often be so clear that there will be no need to conduct a physical experiment at all. In medical fields, a newly developed medicine should not be used on human beings before it is tested hundreds of times on experimental animals. Scientists use these animals to validate their theories and collect relevant data to confirm their effects.

However, after a theory is established, supporting data become very important to stabilize the theory, making it appear to lend more credence to the theory than it actually does. And in common sense, it is impossible to theorize in the first place without at least some data.

To conclude, there is no easy solution to such a complex issue. However, taking into account all the dimensions discussed in the above analysis might be a decisive step out of this dilemma.

 

The word count is not enough, and I feel like there’s nothing more to write. The argument is too broad… I really need to work harder!

Maybe that’s all for now…